未来十年电子商务会不会走下坡路？

一般来讲，一个市场或行业发展从萌芽到稳定成熟期需要10-15年的历程，之后此市场便进入衰落期，因为新的可替代的技术或产品已经进入高增长期。如果从阿里巴巴成立日1999年底开始计算电子商务的正式商业萌芽，到2019年底，其市场发展阶段已经远超过普通周期规律。因此，山东思脉特奇企业管理咨询有限公司（SMCTS）认为 电商零售和批发市场的未来再发明阶段除了完善移动支付和客户信息安全、大数据精准推广、物流、仓储和售后服务等价值链节点外，还会加大向产业链上下游相关领域拓展，如数字营销、金融科技、办公自动化、商业地产运维，和人工智能。

In most cases, a market or indsutry has a life span between 10-15 years from its nascent stage through to stability, thereafter it enters the declining stage. This is due to the fact that advanced technologies or alternative products have entered their high growth stages. If we start counting from the end of 1999 when Alibaba was established, the life of e-commerce market has way exceeded the usual market life cycle until stability. Hence, SMCTS believes that not only is ecommerce retail and wholesale business expected to perfect its mobile payment and customer information security, big data accurate targeted promotion, logistics, warehousing facilities, and after-sale support among others in the value chain, but also further expand into up-and -down stream of the value chain, such as digital marketing, financial technology, office automation, commercial real estate operation and maintenance, and AI.

当下中国零售业正在从一个网店热潮步入网店和实体店相融合的多渠道经营模式。虽然网店具备成本、支付、便利和多样化的优势，传统实体店却有着客户体验和质量保证的好处。随着消费水平的升级，客户越来越重视品牌、质量和个性化。虽然，价格仍然是购买的主要决定因素之一，性价比的提升却已成为未来商家缔造竞争优势的关键。

At present, the Chinese retail industry is migrating from an e-commerce driven platform to a form of integrating internet stores with physical shops. While online stores are advantageous in cost, payment, convenience and variety, traditional shops have plus in customer experience and quality guarantee. With the rising level of consumer spending, customers start to treat brand, quality and personalisation as more important factors in making purchasing decisions. Despite price being one of the important factors of purchase, value-to-price ratio has become the key competitive advantage of e-commerce merchants.

在这个步入新零售市场的趋势下，商家在选品、营销、支付、物流、售后服务以及增值服务方面，应进行全方面的规划。电子商务平台无论是作为批发还是零售的渠道，商家应当在产品和服务的源头用国际质量和安全标准来选择制造商，通过O2O和多渠道的推广方式、安全的在线支付技术、可靠和快速的物流设施、及时的售后客服等等，提升客户的满意度。全球购在这些方面的要求尤为显著。

Stepping into the new retail mode, merchants are expected to plan well ahead for product selection, marketing, payment, logistics, after-sale support as well as value-added service. Whether the e-commerce platform is for retail or wholesale channels, merchants should establish product selection criteria based on international quality and safety standards, through the O2O and omni-channel mode of promotion, safe means of online payment, reliable and quick logistic facilities, timely after sale support service, and so forth, to enhance customer satisfaction — These aspects are especially true for global procurement.

许多之前以网络经营为主的电商平台，也在逐渐与传统实体连锁店建立伙伴关系或直接收购它们，目的是提升客户的体验度，确保客户买到的物品确实是营销中所宣传的、网页上所看到的。另外，随着新兴科技的发展，VR 和 AR 技术也将运用到网络平台，赋予电脑或手机前的客户深入实体店其境的感觉和与商家在线视频互动的方便。

Many e-commerce platforms that used to be internet driven, are starting to build partnership with physical store operators or directly acquire the latter. The goal is to ensure customer experience and products as advertised be in line with customer expectation. Moreover, along with technology advancement, VR and AR are expected to expand into the e-commerce space, providing customers with a submerged experience of visiting physical stores and interacting with shop owners in front of their computers or cellphones.

SMCTS 认为 中国的电子商务市场无论在销售额、客户数量、还是渗透度方面都处于世界领先地位，这将成为未来5年中国GDP增长的一个重要驱动力。 在这方面的贡献，预计2019年电商市场规模（包括B2B, B2C(2C) 和产业链上下游增值业务）将超过其传统货物进出口贸易的价值。智能手机的普及、互联网基础设施的覆盖率和通信成本的下降，将为高质量的电商市场新一轮的增长波浪奠定坚实的基础。

SMCTS believes that the Chinese e-commerce market is a leader in the world, regarding sales, customer volume and penetration rate, which is a significant driver for GDP growth in the next five years. It is expected that the e-commerce business scale (including B2B, B2C(2C), and the up- and down-stream of the value chain) exceeds international commodity trade value by the end of 2019. The prevalence of smart phone ownership, internet infrastructure coverage, and declining telecommunication cost will lay a solid foundation for a new growth wave towards a high quality e-commerce market in China.

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